Why the Past Is a Poor Predictor of the Future

When we sit down to work on next year’s forecast, most of us pull out last year’s numbers, add X%, and call it a plan. We’ve been conditioned to believe the past is the best predictor of the future.

It’s not.

Your past results weren’t created by the market or by luck. They were created by who you were at the time. Your self-concept, your emotional state, and the thoughts you reinforced every day affected the actions you took.

If you use the past to set your future, you’re using an outdated version of yourself as the blueprint. 

Picture a wake behind a boat. The wake represents the past. It shows where the boat has been. But the wake doesn’t push or steer where the boat goes next. It’s just the trail left behind. And yet we treat our past as if it is responsible for where we will be next. 

Your past is nothing more than a reflection of who you were. It’s not evidence of what you’re capable of next. 

Start with Your Self-Concept 

Planning feels hard when you look at a goal and don’t believe it’s possible. You think, “This won’t work,” and you feel small. Your reaction isn’t really about the goal. It’s about the disconnect between who you believe you are and the results you’re trying to create.

Think about it this way:

We know from quantum mechanics that reality is not as fixed as we think it is. It exists as a range of possibilities, what physics calls superpositions.

One of those possibilities is a version of you who has already created the results you want. Whether that potential becomes reality depends on your ability to access that version of yourself now, in the present.

When you think like that person, you feel different and make different decisions. You relate to problems differently. You lead and act differently. And all of that shapes your results more than anything in a forecast.

How the Future Is Created in the Present

The brain uses overlapping neural networks to remember the past and imagine the future. When an image is vivid and repeated, the brain treats it as real, regardless of whether it’s a memory or a projection.

This matters because your emotional state and decisions aren’t driven by objective reality. They’re driven by the inner pictures you live with every day.

When you vividly imagine the version of you who has already created the results you want, your mind begins to orient around that reality as true. This is why elite performers, from Olympians to Navy SEALs, use visualization as part of their training.

Visualization is neurological rehearsal. You’re training your nervous system to treat a new identity as familiar, which is what makes acting from it feel natural instead of forced.

How to Work with Visualization

Visualization isn’t about forcing yourself to believe something new. It’s more like remembering what’s already possible for you.

When you visualize, focus on seeing yourself as the person who’s already living with the outcome you want. Create short movies in your mind that reflect how that version of you moves through the day. How they think. How they speak. How they feel when challenges arise.

Visualizing this way generates powerful feelings like certainty and confidence. Those feelings tell your nervous system it’s safe to act. From that place, what you do next feels natural and aligned instead of forced.

Forecasting and goal setting aren’t really about numbers. They’re about identity. Your future starts with who you believe you are now, and that’s within your control.